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Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight uses statistical analysis — hard numbers — to tell compelling stories about politics, sports, science, economics and culture.
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    Twenty-five years ago, millions of baseball fans around the country turned on their televisions expecting to watch a World Series game — and saw live footage of a deadly earthquake instead. The San Francisco Giants and the Oakland A’s, and the 62,000 fans watching them in Candlestick Park in San Francisco, felt the ground under […]

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    In less than a week, you may have heard, there’s a midterm election in the United States of America. This is sort of a big deal for us at FiveThirtyEight. Such a big deal that our estimable tech team of Jeremy Weinrib and Paul Schreiber arranged a fancy live-blogging platform so you can snuggle up […]

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    Welcome to FiveThirtyEight’s live blog of Game 7 of the 2014 World Series. We’re doing some testing of this format, so please feel free to send us feedback. (see updates...)

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    The Kansas City Royals just concluded the most improbable, exhilarating, agonizing and — ultimately — meaningful season in the franchise’s past three decades of existence. That they lost the World Series to the inexplicably dynastic San Francisco Giants in a memorable Game 7 that literally came down to the final out doesn’t soften the blow […]

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    Stocked with a cast of insanely talented young players, Tuesday’s MLB All-Star Game in Cincinnati was a perfectly pleasant affair, and a nice showcase for the current (and future) state of the sport. But it wouldn’t be an All-Star Game if it weren’t also noted that the outcome of a silly exhibition contest continues to […]

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    Why should politics get to have all the fun with chats? In preparation for the World Series, which starts Tuesday, we summoned the biggest baseball obsessives on FiveThirtyEight’s staff to Slack to talk about the New York Mets and Kansas City Royals. As usual, the transcript below has been lightly edited. neil_paine (Neil Paine, senior […]

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    No matter what happens at the end of this year’s World Series, a curse is getting broken. On Tuesday, the Chicago Cubs will open up proceedings against the Cleveland Indians, and by Nov. 2, one of them will have claimed the title. For two teams with the some of the worst championship luck in all […]

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    In preparation for the World Series, which starts Tuesday night, we invited ESPN MLB writer/editor Christina Kahrl and our own baseball columnist, Rob Arthur, into Slack to chat about the Chicago Cubs and Cleveland Indians. As usual, the transcript below has been lightly edited. neil (Neil Paine, baseball editor and sportswriter): Well, we’re finally down […]

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    You’re reading Back of the Envelope, an experiment that aims to bring shorter, quicker content to FiveThirtyEight. All postseason, FiveThirtyEight’s MLB projections have had a lot of doubts about the Cleveland Indians — our forecast didn’t even think they would make it out of the division series. In the video above, Neil Paine explores the […]

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    Welcome to the latest episode of Hot Takedown, FiveThirtyEight’s sports podcast. On this week’s show (Oct. 25, 2016), we preview the World Series. First, we take a look at the Cleveland Indians and ask if credit for their success belongs only to their bullpen. Then, we chat about the Cubs and wonder if they are […]

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    You’re reading Back of the Envelope, an experiment that aims to bring shorter, quicker content to FiveThirtyEight. Do I want — really, actually, genuinely want — the Cubs to win the World Series? It’s a question I grappled with at length after a couple whiskeys with my best friend from back home as they marched […]

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    You’re reading Back of the Envelope, an experiment that aims to bring shorter, quicker content to FiveThirtyEight. When is a loss just a loss, and when is it a harbinger of things to come? On Tuesday night, the Chicago Cubs and the Golden State Warriors took hard losses in very different settings: Game 1 of […]

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    CHICAGO — The Cleveland Indians won a 1-0 nail-biter on Friday night in Game 3 of the World Series. Two number-three starters succeeded in shutting down two strong offenses, allowing the game to come down to the final at-bat. But while the relievers were overpowering as usual, the most significant influence on this game wasn’t […]

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    CHICAGO — With a 2-1 World Series deficit and home-field advantage slipping away, the Cubs needed this game. Instead, the Indians soundly defeated the Cubs 7-2 on Saturday night in Game 4, silencing the normally raucous Wrigley crowd and drastically decreasing Chicago’s chance of taking home the championship. In a World Series marked by low […]

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    It only took 108 years, but our sports podcast Hot Takedown finally got to discuss a Chicago Cubs World Series win. We break down the strange managerial decisions in Game 7, discuss whether this year’s Cubs or the 2004 Boston Red Sox are Theo Epstein’s crowning achievement, and FiveThirtyEight’s Oliver Roeder joins us to discuss […]

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    BOSTON — For the second-straight chilly night in Fenway Park, Los Angeles Dodgers reliever Ryan Madson faced one of baseball’s great psychological performance tests. And for the second-straight night, Madson failed. A pitcher, the defense, dictates the action in baseball, which makes the game unusual. Standing alone in the center of the infield, a pitcher […]

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    In the celebration Sunday after Boston pitcher Chris Sale struck out Manny Machado to end Game 5 of the World Series, clinching a title for the Red Sox, much was made about this being the best Boston team ever. That’s a topic we covered as well going into the series, but this team was also […]